Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 30.844495 36.653008 43.023016 50.496843 58.993655 68.320893 79.300889
2025-02-02 23.684195 31.754676 41.457044 53.841744 69.079763 87.059853 109.710026
2025-02-09 18.996956 28.004751 39.627216 55.421843 75.992342 101.519699 135.193575
2025-02-16 15.631336 25.037533 37.934296 56.403047 81.597559 114.145788 158.656244
2025-02-23 12.835601 22.229652 35.854932 56.312592 85.388266 124.284506 179.138846
2025-03-02 10.401704 19.456756 33.327126 55.109297 87.271129 131.691897 196.101560
2025-03-09 8.704890 17.502557 31.675306 54.854687 90.258719 140.542604 215.224340
2025-03-16 6.771518 14.769041 28.392798 51.677937 88.551296 142.481822 224.600222
2025-03-23 6.019565 13.987448 28.154573 53.184252 93.893991 154.726271 249.037784
2025-03-30 5.015409 12.529803 26.551440 52.250367 95.286778 161.102227 265.125468
2025-04-06 4.677158 12.336625 27.148155 55.029466 102.709721 176.837124 295.601162
2025-04-13 3.597419 10.351475 24.169037 51.279693 99.153815 175.461195 300.239449
2025-04-20 3.178949 9.825091 24.054390 52.904362 105.141775 190.020715 330.999195
2025-04-27 2.969829 9.768200 24.902502 56.450095 114.778700 211.074977 373.081437
2025-05-04 2.622739 9.276840 24.769916 58.096070 121.172753 227.163516 408.019836
2025-05-11 2.279002 8.698617 24.353036 59.115762 126.472072 241.654954 440.954146
2025-05-18 1.916100 7.955818 23.442359 59.021798 129.685818 252.757369 468.806512
2025-05-25 1.550191 7.077513 22.058962 57.771545 130.601689 259.930757 490.443625
2025-06-01 1.294464 6.460429 21.194782 57.506975 133.324811 270.282108 517.662774
2025-06-08 0.962556 5.429890 19.074170 54.205190 129.832164 269.477625 526.028291
2025-06-15 0.859091 5.222132 19.102860 55.770969 136.113134 286.342889 565.014870
2025-06-22 0.693195 4.680468 18.099028 54.800256 137.141760 293.708224 587.866361
2025-06-29 0.654142 4.685642 18.680391 57.688592 146.329766 316.390914 638.082937